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Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, by Bill Sharpe
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Three Horizons is a simple and intuitive framework for thinking about the future. But it is about much more than simply stretching our thinking to embrace the short, medium and long term. Here Bill Sharpe introduces Three Horizons as a prompt for developing a 'future consciousness' - a rich and multifaceted awareness of the future potential of the present moment - and explores how to put that awareness to work to create the futures we aspire to. The book first outlines the Three Horizons framework and the practices it supports, including case studies of its effective application in rural community development, education, healthcare and elsewhere. In the fi nal section, Sharpe explores his intuition "that we have within us a far deeper capacity for shared life than we are using, and that we are suffering from an attempt to know our way into the future instead of live our way". Here he thrillingly outlines the potential of future consciousness as a shared cultural practice to guide society towards a third horizon that is the patterning of our mutual hopes.
- Sales Rank: #554951 in Books
- Published on: 2013-09-12
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 8.50" h x .28" w x 5.51" l, .35 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 132 pages
Review
"How can an eclectic group of experts, with very different worldviews, come to a shared vision for the future? Using the Three Horizons framework, skilled facilitators achieved the seemingly impossible and enabled the Carnegie Commission for Rural Community Development to agree a compelling, inspiring and hopeful blueprint for the future of rural communities. Now Bill Sharpe reveals the full potential for this way of thinking to generate practical hope in all kinds of complex policy areas." Kate Braithwaite, Operations Director, UnLtd and formerly Carnegie UK Trust "We need to pass from worrying about the future to constructively engaging upon its creation. For all those interested in this task, this book delivers a powerful way of thinking about that future in qualitatively different horizons. If we want transformation to be more than just an aspiration, then we need to position it and to understand the dilemmas that define progress towards a better society. This book helps with that positioning and puts discipline into the process of foresight." Professor Peter Kawalek, Manchester Business School "Every so often a new futures method comes along that opens up new ways of seeing the future. Three Horizons is such a method. It links the present to possible futures, and embodies ways of identifying strategic and innovation challenges. Bill Sharpe, one of the Three Horizons pioneers, has written a valuable primer on its theory and emerging practice." Andrew Curry, The Futures Company "Three Horizons provides a valuable tool for understanding the complexity hidden in past trends and the choices always implicit in the apparent determinism of future possibilities. An intelligent approach to seeing into the future demands both insight into the underlying forces driving surface events and the imagination to know that what appears self-evident may be only the result of a pattern of logic that fails to take fully into account the future play of those forces. Bill Sharpe's book helps us break out of the Newtonian deterministic thinking that so often blinds us to the choices we have made and reveals our power to alter them." Garry Jacobs, Chairman and CEO of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences "It has been a privilege to work with Pierre Wack and Bill Sharpe in thinking about the future and turning it into action. Both understand visionary action planning at its best." Napier Collyns, Co-founder, Global Business Network
About the Author
Bill Sharpe is an independent researcher in science, technology and society. He was a research director at Hewlett Packard Laboratories where he led research into everyday applications of technology and introduced scenario methods to HP to support long-range research and innovation. Since leaving HP he has specialized in science, technology and policy studies for business strategy and public policy foresight. With a background in psychology he is particularly interested in drawing on leading edge research in cognition and systems thinking to find new ways of tackling complex problems. He is a member of International Futures Forum.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Exploring th potential within the Three Horizon framework
By paul4innovating
The value of the three horizons in our planning, our thinking about the future and in managing the tasks and opportunities within these different horizons, for example in innovation, all are introduced in this book by Bill Sharpe. This book provides an excellent introduction to the value of the three horizon approach and equally points you towards further bodies of work to build your understanding. The 3H framework is undervalued and through this book, it can be recognized as valuable to any future framing discussions
Equally the value within this book is this very personal view of Bill's drawn from some excellent examples of the use of the three horizons from his experience. Bill places a real importance of how to create the right environment to allow for conflicting opinions and views to coalesce around themes.As Bill points out you are allowing for the opportunity to bring together a diversity of opinions often found in discussing the future to begin to unite and work together , through the 3H framework, the combining of these different, often conflicting views of the future to achieve often a richer canvas to work from.
A more than helpful book for those interested in mapping out the future. In some ways I would have liked more about the actual facilitating mechanics that can be used but the book offers different principles that need to be always present.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
3 horizons describes old horizons
By Michael Jackson
Disappointed with this book because it contained little that was new to me. The 3 Horizons as described here were standard practice at Citibank from the 1970's onwards. Every manager was expected to be able to say 'where they were', where they were going' and ;'how were they going to get there'. Since this was often done collaboratively without the book's fancy words and diagram it was easy for the Bank to inculculate it as a method across the world. I still use it all the time, have taught it many times and insisted it be used in my time as a CEO and Executive.
As Tom Abeles said it just needed a short paper not a book to describe the technique.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Insightful but caught in its own paradigm, H1
By tom abeles
Three Horizons comes, in part, out of the International Futures Forum, a creative knowledge sharing, consultancy founded by a number of, at the time, edge thinkers. One of the founders, Max Boisot developed a model of information flow, I-Space, with its Social Learning Cycle. It has been well captured in the classic volume, Knowledge Assets. With Boisot's ideas and even those of this volume's author one can see how the Three Horizon's model can be captured by its own conventional thinking, at the H1 level, the extant paradigm.
In the movie, The Outlaw Jose Wales, an old Indian says of the "hero", that he will always seek an "edge". Three Horizons is one of a number of such techniques to work with various groups to approach understanding of current ingrained systems and the struggle for alternatives to emerge. The theory is a variance on the current focus on innovation with such ideas as that of Clayton Christensen's thinking, more complex approaches such as CLA , causal layer analysis, pioneered by Sohail Inayatulah, Gordon and Prince's Synectics or the Cynefin models of David Snowden. All of these dig beneath the intellectual and try to approach the issues by getting clients to explore their personal biases. These work best when dealing with organizational issues. But some work well with creative problem-solving focus on development of "widgets" such as the emergent idea of "crowd sourcing".
The seminal insight that Three Horizons identifies is that old systems, struggling to survive will take two possible paths, suppression of the emergent or co-opting of the idea. We saw this with the US automotive industry faced with the Japanese automobiles; we see this today with the rise of MOOC's, competency based certification and similar alternatives to the dominant post secondary educational model.
We also see that the "edge" thinking is really plastic and is most useful in the hands of a seasoned practitioner. In other words, most of these models are an artificial frame in which to engage the participants in creative problem solving. They are not cookie cutter methodologies that provide a path. In fact, in the volume, the author describes an innovative native Alaskan health care system which was used to help the thinking of the Scottish health care system. The author points out the three horizon elements, yet the people developing it came along a much different path.
What makes the volume frustrating is manifest with the "case studies" which is indicative of the style and approach of the author. A client has a problem, the consultants came in with their Three Horizons approach, the clients gained insights and were able to resolve the issues at hand- maybe! There is no indication how that resolution was resolved and the long term outcomes. The magic in the sessions was never clearly articulated. So this volume is, as to be expected, not a "how to" approach. And, unlike the other methods, mentioned above, there is no indication that this methodology has a community of practitioners as we find in a variety of other consulting practices such as psychology, for example.
It is one tool, plastic in form/function, in a consultant's armamentarium. As with a skilled surgeon, it needs deft "hands" and the ability to draw out other instruments as needed. It is far from being the Swiss Army knife in innovation, creativity and institutional problem-solving. It is far too intellectual, though the author may take exception, here.
The material seems "padded" to get to book length and would appear better suited to a long article in one of the lay journals or a more detailed treatment for an academic journal. This volume is a personal journey of the author and thus has elements of uncertainty as to how it will be received by an undefined public.
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